The world slowly creeps up on you sometimes. It doesn’t feel like very long ago that Lewis Hamilton took his second win of the season in Montreal, but it’s F1 time again. This week, the Grand Prix comes from Valencia – it’s the Grand Prix of Europe. Ferrari are bringing a major upgrade to their exhaust system, whilst Red Bull will simply be trying to put some more points on the board after a couple of problematic races. McLaren will be happy, having won comfortably last time out, and taking pole, whilst Mercedes will be hoping Michael Schumacher can put in a better performance than in Canada. Before going on to my predictions for this weekend, I should just lament Alonso’s fantastic performance in Canada, taking third place. Had it not been for that, I would have taken a clean sweep of first, second and third, in the correct order. Never mind, it’ll come… but still, it was a fantastic performance for Ferrari as they had looked to have slipped back significantly in the last few races. So, in a slight break with tradition, I shall name my top three and then explain why…
- Lewis Hamilton
- Jenson Button
- Fernando Alonso
You know what, I’m going to admit it. I just don’t know how to pick this one. In fact, in the time it’s taken to write this paragraph, I’ve changed my picks, twice. You see, Valencia is comparable to some extent to Monaco, but it’s actually a very different kind of street circuit to Monte Carlo. There are a lot of corners – 25 – but it’s very fast in places. It is actually a closer match to the last race in Montreal, with fast straights and slow corners, rather than lots of blind, Armco barriers. It will be a tough job to pass on the track and it is unlikely to be a race for the DVD collection.
So here is my rationale. Lewis Hamilton loves street circuits. The McLaren will be well suited. Jenson Button was beaten by his team-mate in Valencia last year, but should still be quick enough to follow his team-mate home. Hamilton shouldn’t be troubled too much for the win here, though I feel like I’ve served Button an injustice with some of my picks this year. Ferrari, although bringing a major upgrade to Valencia, will not reap much reward from it here. Firstly, the upgrade will not be particularly effective in Valencia – it’s a package that is more effective in faster corners. Secondly, Ferrari may be a little cautious as the new exhaust may be marginal on heating. Possibly. It has been on the Red Bull, but everything is marginal on an Adrian Newey car! Still, I expect Alonso to be the best of the rest. Watch out for Felipe Massa, though. I’m expecting a good result from the Brazilian.
It will be interesting to see which Red Bull comes out on top in Valencia. Webber stalked Vettel home in Canada, but it will be interesting to see if one of them can put the other in the shade this weekend. This is important since McLaren have both their drivers sitting pretty at the top of the championship standings and not looking like falling out any time soon. Red Bull may still have the fastest car overall, but McLaren are closing fast, many expect Ferrari to close the gap in the coming races, and Red Bull may struggle to claw their lost points back now. Whereas Brawn took full advantage of their early dominance last year – thanks to some devastating drives from Jenson Button – Red Bull haven’t. They have instead made a catalogue of errors and McLaren, Hamilton particularly, increasingly look like stealing the cat’s milk. So, all in all, we’re in for a very interesting weekend, though not for the overtaking, I’d say!