Since I am away in Oslo this weekend, I shall get my Grand Prix preview out of the way nice and early. The season is hotting up nicely, though it is also looking ominous for anyone not driving a Red Bull. So far this season, Red Bull have taken pole position in all six races (three voles each for Vettel and Webber), have taken the fastest lap in three races (two to one in Webber’s favour) and have won three races too (also two to one in Webber’s favour). Although neither driver has taken the hat-trick of pole, fastest lap and race win in the same race, the team have taken the hat-trick twice, including at the last race in Monaco, and Mark Webber has won both the last two races – Spain and Monaco – which happen to represent the most diametrically opposed circuit types on the Formula One circuit. So, if you’re not in a Red Bull, the message is clear – pray it breaks down.
Turkey is a track that will suit the Red Bull car down to the ground. The now-famous turn eight – with four apexes at high speed – is a dream if your happen to have a car loaded with downforce, which the Red Bull certainly is! Barring any problems, I would fully expect the Red Bull car to win again. Behind them, it’s a race between Ferrari and McLaren. Lewis Hamilton relishes a track like Turkey, and Jenson Button won here last year. It will be interesting to see whether McLaren or Ferrari have the upper hand this weekend – I suspect Alonso will edge the McLarens, who will both edge Massa.
All eyes will also be on the Mercedes. Nico Rosberg hasn’t been quite the force he was early on in the last couple of races, but Schumacher has looked much more comfortable. He caught Button napping in Spain and Alonso in Monaco – though cruelly punished – and so will be looking for better finishes from here. However, without some new, serious upgrades, both Rosberg and Schumacher will struggle to break in to the top five.
Amongst the rest of the field, watch out for Adrian Sutil, who was handy in Spain, along with Robert Kubica, who has been fantastic all season so far. Rubens Barrichello is far to discount too, and also keep an eye on Kobayashi – if the BMW-Sauber sets up well, he may, with a slice of luck too, manage to scrape a point. Maybe. He’s more likely to fall just outside though.
So, without further ado, here is my top three for Turkey:
- Mark Webber;
- Sebastien Vettel;
- Fernando Alonso.
You may be surprised by the top two, but Webber beat Vettel in Turkey last year, finishing second. He’s also won the last two races and seems to have a small psychological advantage over his team-mate. He’s also nailed back-to-back victories and is leading the Drivers’ Championship. I doubt it will bother him – he’s having the time of his life right now and is brimming with confidence. I hope he keeps it up!
So, if Webber will win, second place is obvious, assuming Vettel finishes. He’ll have a new chassis, which may help. Finally, Alonso in third. Hamilton and Button will be his nearest rivals, but I think he’ll pull it off.
Last time out: Don’t go there. My picks were a disaster. I got one pick right (Vettel, in the correct position too, actually). My McLaren gamble didn’t really work. C’est la vie.